The stallion that we believe offers the best value in Kentucky for 2025 is a horse that we have recommended (and bred to ourselves) previously, but we are even more bullish about Army Mule now than ever before given where he is in his trajectory, and you can expect to see him figure in many of our write-ups this year.
Because Army Mule only ran three times (though he was undefeated by a combined 22-1/4 lengths, including a win in the G1 Carter with a 114 Beyer), and because he was the son of a regional stallion (though his looks and stride were good for an $825,000 price tag as a 2YO in-training), he started at the low end of the stud fee spectrum in Kentucky when made a $10,000 proposition his first year at stud (though at a farm, in John Sikura’s Hill ‘N’ Dale, which has made a regular habit of identifying brilliant but very lightly-raced prospects who succeed at stud).
Despite all those knocks against him, Army Mule’s progeny came out firing as 2YOs in 2022. He wound up 4th on the Freshman Sire List behind Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic and Justify, who had all started at much higher fees and had at least a third more foals than Army Mule. But Army Mule’s total of five black-type winners was just one less than the six that each of those top three had, and he had seven additional black-type horses to his credit as well.
Since then, Army Mule has added Grade 2 winner Danse Macabre and Grade 1 winner One In Vermillion to his tally, as well as 2024 Grade 3 winner Federal Judge. He is now up to 13 black-type winners from 136 runners (9.6%), with nine additional black-type horses (16.2%). And his AEI to CI ratio is incredible (1.39/1.05). That CI also indicates that what Army Mule has achieved so far has been done without much help at all from his mates, which is not surprising for a stallion starting at the fee he did in Kentucky.
Army Mule had a somewhat quiet 2024 (though Federal Judge was a brilliant winner of the G3 Phoenix and among the favorites for the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, while Stanley House was classic-placed in Canada’s King’s Plate), that wasn’t totally unexpected with his smallest crop of 2YOs coming to the races this year. But he covered a third more mares in 2022 (115) than he did in 2021 (83), once people had seen his first yearlings and his first juveniles at the breeze-up sales, and his 2023 book was almost twice as big again (at 199) after that first crop had run in 2022, despite a fee raise to $12,500 (which went even higher towards the end of the breeding season as his book filled up). He covered 160 mares in 2024 at an advertised fee of $25,000 following the graded scores by One In Vermillion and Danse Macabre.
With a slight drop to $20,000 in 2025, knowing what Army Mule has already done and what he has every right to do in the next few years, Army Mule looks like easily the best value in Kentucky this year. The commercial market has still been kind to him despite his quiet year (his yearlings averaged $74,572 in ‘24 for 44 sold; in ‘23 it was $75,765 for 40 sold), and it will continue to embrace him as his better-bred yearlings come through starting in 2025.
Now, for why he fits C’est Mardi specifically. First of all, this is an excellent physical match-up: Army Mule is a powerfully-made horse with loads of substance and plenty of leg, and C’est Mardi is of the same type, if a bit more feminine. But it’s very much like-to-like, which we always prefer when possible. We’d also note that Army Mule’s best runners have succeeded over a wide range of distances and surfaces, which complements the versatility which C’est Mardi herself demonstrated on the track when winning on both turf and dirt (wet and fast), both from off the pace and on it.
On paper, although TrueNicks rates this mating a “D”, they’re looking at a very broad cross of AP Indy over Tiznow. If you look at just Army Mule and his sire with Tiznow mares, they have combined for four runners, of which three are winners, for $541k in combined earnings — and a $135k earner from this mating would be an outcome we’d gladly take.
As we have cited in both of C’est Mardi’s previous matches, her female family has also had repeated success with AP Indy/Seattle Slew-line stallions like Army Mule. Specifically, her half-sister has produced a black-type placed, six-figure earner by Dialed In (an AP Indy grandson like Army Mule), her dam is a half-sister to a black-type runner and producer by Seattle Slew’s son Williamstown, and a pair of Grade 2 winners by the Seattle Slew sons Capote and Fast Play, respectively, appear further back on her page. Plus, Army Mule has a couple of black-type runners out of Storm Cat-line mares, and C’est Mardi’s broodmare sire is a son of Storm Cat.
So all of that gives us confidence that the nick rating isn’t going to be determinative of this eventual foal’s ability!