With breeding season just about upon us, Housatonic Bloodstock LLC is here to help you plan your 2018 matings.
Below are excerpts from a project that we completed back in 2017 for a group of clients, who provided a list of stallions that they were considering as mates for their mare last spring, and asked for an analysis of her pedigree and how she would match up with each of these stallions. The clients eventually chose Justin Phillip as the mate for their mare last year, and after she slipped that foal, they are breeding her back to him in 2018.
If you would like help narrowing your options as far as who to breed your mare to in 2018, give us a call at (617) 595-8849, or email us at [email protected]. We will also be attending the upcoming Fasig-Tipton February Mixed Sale, if you’re looking to add to your equine portfolio.
Not Me But U is a 2005 mare by Flatter out of Chase You, by Mahogany Hall. She won six of 58 starts for $69,020 in earnings. Her initial victory came at six furlongs, her other five at one mile; all of her wins were on dirt. Physically, Not Me But U is a well-balanced mare of average size, with excellent bone, and knees that are slightly offset.
Not Me But U has a beautiful pedigree tracing in tail female to the Blue Hen mare La Troienne via her Blenheim II daughter, Businesslike (Not Me But U’s sixth dam).
The two most striking aspects of Not Me But U’s pedigree are (1) her nine strains of La Troienne via three different daughters (Businesslike, Baby League and Big Hurry), and (2) the fact that Northern Dancer only appears once.
Not Me But U’s dam, Chase You, was a winner at one mile on dirt. She produced four winners from four foals to race (and five foals total). The best of these four was Not Me But U’s full-brother Big Bad Ike. There was also Gmangotit (by Ordway) and Sugarplumfairy (by Even the Score). The unraced foal from Chase You, Fashion Model (by Even the Score), was a $180,000 2-year-old in-training purchase. Neither of Chase You’s other daughters besides Not Me But U has produced a foal.
Chase You is one of ten foals out of Adena’s Girl, by Personal Flag. Nine of those ten ran, seven won. The best of them was multiple stakes-placed winner Ready and Tough (by Good and Tough). The others that showed the most ability were Mein Fraulein (by Saarland), Soco Creek (by Yonaguska), and the non-winning Flat Jack (by Flatter). The family has predominantly succeeded on dirt at a mile or less (though Ready and Tough has produced the solid turf performer Readyshakego by the turf sire Shakespeare).
Not Me But U’s third dam is the stakes-placed winner Queen’s Gambit, by Bold Ruler, who also produced stakes winner Chess Move (by Avatar) and the winner Whiffling (by Wavering Monarch), who is the dam of Champion Prairie Bayou and multiple Graded Stakes winner Flitch.
Although Whiffling appears under Not Me But U’s third dam, she shares some further pedigree similarities with Not Me But U, in that Whiffling’s sire, Wavering Monarch, is by Majestic Light out of a Buckpasser mare, whereas Not Me But U’s broodmare sire is by Woodman (out of a Buckpasser mare) from a mare by Majestic Light. In light of that, it seems worth noting that Whiffling’s two best offspring were by Little Missouri (a son of Cox’s Ridge) and Demons Begone (a son of Electrocutionist, by Gallant Romeo).
There are no sire-lines who have had such consistent success with this female family so as to provide strong direction for what route to go with Not Me But U’s mate. Both Chase You and Adena’s Girl produced good horses by Flatter (by A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare), but that is no help since Not Me But U is herself by Flatter. Meanwhile, the stakes-placed winner Ready and Tough’s sire, Good and Tough, is bred on the reverse cross to Flatter, being by a Mr. Prospector stallion out of a dam bred on the Bold Ruler/Princequillo cross. Ready and Tough has herself produced a quality winner in Cotton Top Phil, by Ghostzapper.
Without her female family pointing to a clear choice for sire-line, targeting a stallion with additional crosses of La Troienne and Northern Dancer seems to make the most sense. It also makes nicking reports more useful than they otherwise would be.
Because Not Me But U is a good-sized mare with no glaring conformational defects, there is no trait to really avoid in a potential mate (her offset knees are not severe enough to really inhibit, although you would want to try to avoid a stallion with really bad knees so as to not exacerbate it). Given that she, and most of her female family, have done their best running on dirt, I would recommend sticking to a stallion with dirt form, and all four of your choices meet that qualification.
Although I do not believe that nicking reports should be determinative, they can sometimes be instructive. I ran TrueNick and eNick reports for each of the four stallions with Not Me But U, Chase You and Adena’s Girl. All of the stallions nicked above average with Not Me But U on both programs.
You mentioned that you are interested in third-year sires because of their potential to stand for more money next year after their first crop runs. For that reason, I will also address their sales results below as those can often be an indicator of racetrack success.
I have not seen Justin Phillip in person yet, but in photos he appears to be a taller, leggier horse than sprinters often are. He also has plenty of length of body, more than his sire First Samurai. He likely gets that from his broodmare sire Cryptoclearance. Although he did his best running sprinting, he was bred to go a mile at least and could very well throw to that at stud.
Mating Justin Phillip to Not Me But U would result in 5×5 inbreeding to Northern Dancer, with another cross in the sixth generation, as well as 5x4x5 to Mr. Prospector (again with another cross in sixth generation).
Justin Phillip carries three strains of La Troienne, one via her daughter Belle of Troy, and two via her son Bimelech (none of which is among those already carried by Not Me But U).
Interestingly, Justin Phillip’s pedigree also contains both Avatar and Gallant Romeo, who have both had success when crossed over Queen’s Gambit or her daughter, Whiffling.
Justin Phillip will have only 73 2-year-olds running this year. He bred 86 mares in 2015, and then 93 mares in 2016. His first weanlings averaged $50,020 for 10 sold (with a strong median of $42,500), and his yearlings averaged $31,042 for 45 sold. He had two individual yearlings bring $100,000 each.
Though that yearling average dropped from the extremely high weanling average, the yearling average itself is still solid. And the looks of the first weanlings appear to have given Justin Phillip a bump in his latest book of mares that [the other potential mates] did not get. His sire-line has crossed well with A.P. Indy, as well as with Woodman and Private Account (further back in Not Me But U’s pedigree).