We try not to get too locked into any single breeding theory when planning matings, instead viewing them all as tools and trying to incorporate bits and pieces from each as seems reasonable in a given scenario. In the case of recommending Tiz Emily and Jill to Paynter in 2022, we are not only planning a mating because of some fascinating inbreeding (including an instance of the Rasmussen Factor and several different sex-balanced inbreeding occurrences) which might be theoretically positive, but because of a specific pattern which has already proven explicitly effective for Paynter himself. This should give Tiz Emily and Jill another chance to produce a solid runner relatively early in her breeding career.
Paynter was a brilliant racehorse himself, and has sired the likely 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go to go along with 18 other stakes winners (good for 5% of his foals 3 & up through the end of ’21). After a small crop of 2YOs in 2021, he now has solid-sized books coming through the pipeline — and having shown that his stock are worth waiting on even if they aren’t the most precocious, we expect his already-solid results to improve now that people know what to expect from them.
In addition to the Maryland-bred Knicks Go, Paynter’s other top runners include G3 Pimlico Special winner Harper’s First Ride, Canadian classic winner Merveilleux, 2021 multiple stakes winner Miss Leslie, etc. Harper’s First Ride is noteworthy here because he is out of a mare by Tiz Wonderful, which will be the identical cross to the foal from this particular mating, and Paynter also has another stakes winner out of a mare by Tiznow himself (he the sire of Tiz Wonderful) — which is good for an “A++” rating on TrueNicks given that these two stakes winners come from just 24 foals of racing age (16 runners, 13 winners; and for the cross of Paynter with Tiz Wonderful mares specifically, the totals are 7 foals of racing age, all winners, and the one G3 winner).
What makes this cross even more intriguing is that Paynter’s dam, Tizso, is a full-sister to Tiznow — so this cross involves inbreeding to full-siblings 2×3 (a variety of the Rasmussen Factor).
Additionally, sending Tiz Emily and Jill to Paynter will result in a foal inbred 3×3 to the leading runner and sire Deputy Minister, through a son (Paynter’s sire Awesome Again) and a daughter (Tiz Emily and Jill’s dam Lakefront), meaning that inbreeding is sex-balanced. Paynter’s pedigree features Deputy Minister over Tizso, while this is reversed for Tiz Emily and Jill, who has Tiz Wonderful over Deputy Minister. Also worth noting in these pedigrees is that the Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew will be present 5x6x4 (the first two instances through Tizso and Tiznow’s broodmares sire Seattle Song, the latter through Lakefront’s G1-winning dam Lakeway, and thus also sex-balanced).
Physically this pairing is an excellent case of like-to-like, as both are medium-sized individuals with plenty of leg, perhaps tending a tad towards being closer-coupled. And although Tiz Emily and Jill scored her four victories at 5-1/2 and 6 furlongs, her pedigree suggests more classic distance ability — Paynter will reinforce these tendencies of her pedigree and we’d expect a foal from this match to run long at Laurel, both in terms of distance and career longevity!