As we approach the First Saturday in May and the Kentucky Derby, we like to have something written up with our thoughts about the race, most especially for those friends and acquaintances who might only pay attention to horse racing for this one race each year.
This year, we believe that the favorite — Journalism, a son of Curlin who won the Santa Anita Derby-G1 for trainer Mike McCarthy last time out in his first start since the Coolmore “Lads” joined the ownership line with Eclipse and Bridlewood — is an absolute standout and as close to a certainty as it gets in this race. He is tactical, is bred to run all day and acts like that is the case in his races, and has consistently run faster than his contemporaries on speed figures. He’s well-drawn, and in a race which appears to have a ton of pace signed on, he should sit a great trip. He also appears to have a calm demeanor which will allow him to handle the circus that will be Churchill Downs all week, but especially on Saturday.
So Journalism would be our pick, but he’s also going to be the heavy favorite. As such, we are excited to have a horse at a much higher price to root for and who should have every chance to get a piece of things — even if we think it’s unlikely that he (or anyone else) can outrun Journalism for the win. That horse is the Juddmonte homebred Final Gambit, trained by Brad Cox and a last-out winner of the Jeff Ruby Stakes-G2 at Turfway.
Final Gambit is 30/1 on the morning line, and thus will pay much better than Journalism (even if you bet Final Gambit to place or show). Those morning line odds seem a tad on the high side, perhaps, but even if he’s closer to 20/1, he still offers plenty of value.
Now, why do we like Final Gambit? As mentioned, he’s coming off a win in a traditional Derby prep, and he accomplished that victory in extremely impressive fashion. With just a maiden victory to his credit (in his third start, after running 3rd, then 2nd, in his first pair of races), he trailed early, rallied widest around the turn (the chart calls it six-wide but it seemed like more) to loop the field, and powered past the leaders in the lane to win going away by 3-1/2 lengths.
The knocks on that race would be that the field was not the deepest among the Derby preps, and it came over the Polytrack at Turfway, rather than a dirt track. And in fact, Final Gambit has never run on dirt. However, his workouts since the Jeff Ruby have come over the dirt and Final Gambit has looked smooth and powerful in those workouts, so we don’t believe that the surface will be an issue for him. He’s also got plenty of dirt breeding (being by Not This Time out of a Tapit mare) even if his deeper female family is turfier, given Juddmonte’s European roots. But as has been pointed out in numerous articles recently, turf breeding also tends to be distance breeding, and Final Gambit is one of the horses in this year’s Derby that will have no questions about his ability to handle a mile-and-a-quarter.
His late-running style should also benefit from an anticipated fast pace, and hopefully he can work out a clear trip from the back of the pack — never a given in a huge Derby field, but we’re hopeful!
We might also be a bit biased towards Final Gambit, given that his dam is a half-sister to a mare named Paw Prints that we purchased for our friends at Wasabi Ventures a few years ago. A Derby win (or even placing) for Final Gambit would increase her value a good bit, and be a nice feather in our cap!
Burnham Square, Sovereignty and East Avenue are others that we think have a chance to get a piece behind Journalism.
In other races at Churchill on Saturday, we will be rooting hard for Mindframe in the Churchill Downs Stakes-G1. After rocketing to stardom in his first two starts last year as a 3YO (between which we sold his half-sister Star of Shanghai for $85,000 after claiming her for $5,000 the previous year), Mindframe finished 2nd to Dornoch in both the Belmont-G1 and the Haskell-G1. Sent to the sidelines thereafter with bone bruising, Mindframe returned this March with his first black-type victory in the Gulfstream Park Mile-G2. He’ll seek his first Grade 1 victory on Saturday against a strong field, and a victory there would boost the value of two of our broodmares who share his female family, including Twelveo’clockrock, who is very similarly-bred to Mindframe’s dam Walk of Stars. Twelveo’clockrock is currently carrying her first foal, by Blofeld, on a February cover.
In the last race at Churchill on Saturday after the Derby, the $485,000 yearling purchase Mainstream makes his second start, having finished a well-bet 3rd in his debut at Gulfstream recently. Racing for trainer Brad Cox, Mainstream is a son of Speightstown and is a half-brother to a mare named Saucily, who we purchased on behalf of our friends at Wasabi Ventures as a broodmare prospect a few years ago. A big win for Mainstream on this massive card would be a nice boost to Saucily’s value, too.
The Kentucky stallion that we’ve been highest on the last two breeding seasons is the Maryland-bred Grade 1 winner Army Mule, who stands at Hill ‘N’ Dale Farm. We’re on record repeatedly touting his early results and loaded pipeline, and his first 2YO runner of 2025 was the romping Keeneland maiden winner Pinky Finger. Trainer Wes Ward runs Pinky Finger back on Thursday at Churchill in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes, where another big effort would see her head to Royal Ascot this summer.
Finally, you might recall our disappointment in advance of last year’s Derby that Mugatu did not make the field. That son of Blofeld went on to place in a couple of stakes races later last year, including the Maryland Million Classic and the Bald Eagle Derby, both at Laurel. Mugatu is entered back at Churchill Downs this Derby week, though he’s deep on the also eligible list (again) for a Thursday allowance that goes as race 7 for new connections.
Blofeld is another stallion that we’ve touted ad nauseam, and another with a loaded pipeline about to reach the races. His biggest crop — from a book of mares as big as his first four combined — is juveniles in 2025 and the first runner from that group is entered on Saturday at Laurel in race 2. Named Rerun Table, she runs for owner Bird Mobberley and trainer John Salzman, Jr., and off a bullet breeze in her most recent workout, hopefully she can get Blofeld’s 2YOs off to the same strong start this Derby Day of 2025 that Pinky Finger has done for Army Mule.
